Signals
Quantuma generates proactive signals from the underlying BDC data. Each signal has a type, severity, and narrative, and is shown on the relevant entity’s overview page.
Signal types
Borrower signals
| Signal | Trigger | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Refi Opportunity | Position seasoned 18–30 months AND (mark divergence > 2% OR ≤ 12 months to maturity) | High |
| Mark Divergence | BDC’s mark vs peer avg > 3% AND divergence is widening QoQ | High |
| Mark Decline | Avg mark declined > 2% for 2 consecutive quarters | Medium |
| Stress Alert | Avg mark < 90% OR mark dropped > 5% in a single quarter | High |
Sector signals
These are currently under implementation. Contact Adnan Haider (adnan@quantuma.io) for feedback.
Lender signals
| Signal | Trigger | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| New Entry Batch | New names added this quarter | Low |
| Exit Batch | Exits this quarter | Low |
Sponsor signals
| Signal | Trigger | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Sponsor Refi Cluster | 3+ portfolio companies are refi candidates | High |
How signals appear in the UI
Signals surface as badges and visual indicators throughout the app:
- Stress badge — Red “Stressed” tag on portfolio company rows in the sponsor overview
- NEW / EXIT badges — Green “NEW” and red “EXIT” badges on the lender activity table
- Mark trend arrows — Red down-arrows (▼ -25bps) and green up-arrows on QoQ changes
- Visual mark bars — Green (healthy, >97%), amber (watch, 90–97%), red (stress, <90%) progress bars on mark columns
- Maturity highlighting — Near-term maturities shown with colored date badges
Key concepts
Refi window — The 18–30 month period after loan origination when a borrower is statistically likely to refinance. Combined with near-term maturity or mark divergence, this creates a high-probability origination signal.
Mark divergence — When BDCs mark the same company’s same-seniority debt at materially different values. A divergence > 2% suggests disagreement on credit quality and may signal an opportunity or risk.
Seasoning — Months since the BDC acquired the position. Calculated from acquisition date to current period end date.